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X-Analytics Software Update: December 8, 2023

To ensure the X-Analytics Application remains current and produces reliable outcomes, the X-Analytics Research Team aggregates and analyzes historical and cyber risk intelligence data to calibrate backend variables within X-Analytics.

This update includes:


Threat

Industry Threat Baselines: +3.9% change

  • The industry threat baselines increased by an average of 3.9% since the last update.

  • Most notable, Transportation & Warehousing (48,49), Public Administration (92), and Mining (21) have the largest increases in threat activity.  For this most part, these industries are experiencing an increase in insider misuse and cyber-espionage activity.

  • However, Finance and Insurance (52), Healthcare and Social Assistance (62), and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (54) continue to have the most significant threat activity.  These industries are experiencing high volumes of web application attacks and crimeware activity.

  • Denial of Service Attacks, Crimeware (including ransomware), and Web Application Attacks are the top three threat categories (in order of most likely to least likely).

  • The increase in threat activity is partially related to increases in malware, credential stuffing, zero day, cryptojacking, and error activity.

Threat Conclusion: The increase in threat activity will cause an increase in cyber exposure for most customers.


Data Breach Probability

Data Breach Probability Baseline: +3.6% change

  • Data breach probability baseline increase by an average of 3.6% since the last update.

  • The increase in data breach probability is related to an increase in unauthorized access, insider activity, and ransomware (that includes data theft).

  • The average size of data breach is still holding between 200k and 300k records.

Data Breach Conclusion: The increase in data breach probability will cause an increase in data breach cyber exposure for most customers.


Business Interruption

Business Interruption (DoS) Probability Baseline: -0.3% change

  • Business interruption (DoS) probability baseline decreased by an average of 0.3% since the last update.

  • This decrease is partially related to a decrease in short duration attacks and TCP-based network attacks.

Business Interruption (Other) Probability Baseline: +2.3% change

  • Business interruption (Other) probability baseline increased by an average of 2.3% since the last update.

  • This increase is partially related to an increase in targeted attacks and supply chain dependencies.

Business Interruption Conclusion: The increase in business interruption (Other) probability will override the decrease in business interruption (DoS) probability and will cause an increase in business interruption cyber exposure for most customers.



Ransomware

Ransomware Probability Baseline: +2.4% change

  • Ransomware baseline probability has increased by an average of 2.4% since the last update.

  • This increase in probability is partially due to an increase in Lockbit and BlackCat (including Scattered Spider) ransomware activity.

Ransomware Extortion: +4.2% change

  • Low Impact Extortion: +4.8% change Ransomware low impact extortion has increased by 4.8% since the last update.

  • Median Impact Extortion: +4.2% change Ransomware median impact extortion has increased by 4.2% since the last update.

  • High Impact Extortion: +2.1% change Ransomware high impact extortion has increased by 2.1% since the last update.

  • Worst-Case Impact Extortion: +1.8% change Ransomware worst-case impact extortion has increased by 1.8% since the last update.

  • The increase in extortion is partially related to victim organizations paying the ransom (especially when data theft is associated with the ransomware incident) and improved negotiating techniques being used by the ransomware gangs.

Ransomware Conclusion: The increase in ransomware probability and the increase in ransomware extortion will cause an increase in ransomware cyber exposure for most customers.


Misappropriation

Misappropriation Probability Baseline: -2.5% change

  • Misappropriation probability baseline has decreased by an average of 2.5% since the last update.

  • The decrease in probability is partially related to an overall decrease in fund transfer fraud.

  • However, there does seem to be a lack of reporting associated with intellectual property theft..

Misappropriation of Funds - % of Payments Related to Fraud: -19.5% change

  • Misappropriation of Funds (% of payments related to fraud) has decreased by 19.5% since the last update.

  • This decrease continues to be related to improved wire, ACH, and other fraud countermeasures (mostly provided by third parties).

Misappropriation Conclusion: The decrease in misappropriation probability will cause a decrease in misappropriation cyber exposure for most customers, and the decrease in "percent of payments related to fraud" will cause a decrease in misappropriation of funds cyber exposure for most customers.


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